Entries for 'EM Vulnerability'
December 29, 2022
For many EM investors, 2022 was unfortunately a binary year, …
meaning you either foresaw Russia’s invasion of Ukraine or you didn’t.
We did not rin...
December 22, 2022
We have been flagging a US disinflation dynamic since this summer.
That’s when inflation among CPI components became less broad-based, …
which ended...
December 15, 2022
We last week wrote about our positive outlook for EM in 2023.
Our positive view hinges on US inflation momentum having peaked, …
something we have b...
December 8, 2022
There’s widespread pessimism on prospects for EM in 2023.
That pessimism isn’t justified given our read of markets in 2022.
EM currencies held up fa...
December 1, 2022
We last week published our updated global growth forecast.
Adjusting for base effects, 2023 is likely to look as weak as 2009, …
with weakness radia...
November 24, 2022
The world was on the brink of global recession earlier this year.
War in Ukraine, high commodity prices and COVID have taken a toll, …
...
November 17, 2022
We have been in the dovish inflation camp since this summer, …
when our high-frequency metrics began to point to moderation, …
picking up a marked d...
November 10, 2022
Our last Global Macro Views was on Modern Monetary Theory (MMT).
Until 2022, government debt had been rising even as interest rates fell, …
creating...
November 3, 2022
Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) was all the rage two years ago.
At the time, global interest rates were low amid record fiscal deficits …
feeding the i...
October 27, 2022
Last week we reviewed key themes from discussions at our annual meetings.
We noted the lack of consensus around monetary tightening amid high inflati...
October 20, 2022
This Global Macro Views reports on the key macro debates at our annual meetings.
There’s no consensus on the direction monetary policy should take in...
October 13, 2022
We unveiled new data tracking tankers shipping oil out of Russia a few months ago.
The innovation to the database is that it identifies the ultimate ...
October 6, 2022
We last week discussed our updated exchange rate fair values.
That discussion centered on structural breaks across G10 currencies, …
given Russia’s ...
September 29, 2022
This GMV updates our exchange rate fair value estimates.
Our focus in these updates is usually concentrated on EM, …
but Russia’s invasion of Ukrain...
September 22, 2022
The COVID shock caused substantial supply chain disruptions, …
which spilled into unprecedented delivery delays around the world, …
as well as large...
September 15, 2022
After Russia invaded Ukraine, emerging markets were very resilient at first.
Rising commodity prices meant the war was a positive terms of trade shoc...
September 8, 2022
The effectiveness of the G7 price cap is being hotly debated.
This Global Macro Views summarizes the debate on both sides.
Skeptics fear that certai...
August 25, 2022
We have built a database tracking tankers shipping oil out of Russia.
The innovation to the database is that it identifies the ultimate owner.
Oil t...
June 9, 2022
The ECB has clearly signaled normalization of monetary policy, …
even as periphery sovereign bond spreads keep widening out steadily.
Rate ...
May 26, 2022
We yesterday published our updated Capital Flows Report, …
laying out our latest global growth and capital flows forecasts.
Risk is buildin...