Entries for 'EM Vulnerability'
February 18, 2021
There was a dramatic credit expansion in Turkey last year, …
which drove current account deficit widening and reserve losses.
This underlying sour...
December 24, 2020
The BoJ and ECB have a problem in common.
Both have been out-eased by the Federal Reserve.
This repeats the policy mistake of the BoJ in 2008/9.
...
December 21, 2020
The OPEC meeting in early March was a big turning point for markets in 2020.
Failure to agree production cuts in the face of global recession sent o...
December 11, 2020
This year saw an unprecedented shock to global demand and markets.
We look back at 2020 to highlight what we think are the key take-aways, …
begin...
December 3, 2020
We’ve been writing about beneficial effects from currency devaluations, ...
which – when they are large – help rebalance current accounts materially...
November 12, 2020
The export channel from devaluation remains a positive force for EM one we think is underappreciated at the current juncture.
November 5, 2020
Many emerging market currencies have fallen sharply this year, …
after trend-depreciating in real terms for many years prior to 2020.
We screen EM...
October 29, 2020
Many EM currencies have weakened sharply this year, …
but the devaluation trend substantially predates COVID-19.
Depreciations are large even in r...
September 10, 2020
The COVID-19 shock has us forecasting a global recession of -3.8 percent in 2020, …
substantially worse than the -0.4 percent contraction in the 200...
July 16, 2020
Brazil has been hit harder than Turkey in the COVID-19 shock, ...
with the Real down 25 percent in 2020 versus 13 percent for the Lira.
That pictu...
June 18, 2020
Turkey has substantially outgrown the rest of EM in the COVID-19 shock.
It has also seen a more rapid and marked decline in its official FX reserves...
May 28, 2020
Non-resident portfolio outflows from EM have been large, amounting to a five standard deviation shock in March and April.
May 14, 2020
The G-4 central banks are doing QE on an unprecedented scale, …
led by the Fed whose weekly purchases annualize to $2.5 trillion Dollars, ...
whic...
April 30, 2020
The US policy response to COVID-19 stands out in international comparisons.
Fiscal stimulus is likely to take government debt from 80 to 110 percent...
April 23, 2020
The COVID-19 shock has prompted a historic policy response in the US.
Fiscal stimulus will likely take government debt from 80 to 110 percent of GDP...
April 16, 2020
The COVID-19 shock has hit emerging market currencies hard.
Lots of comparisons are being made on who has been affected more.
Those need to allow ...
March 23, 2020
The global economic outlook has been shifting at lightning speed.
On March 5 we cut global growth in 2020 from 2.6 to 1.6 percent, ...
and further...
March 19, 2020
We downgraded 2020 global growth from 2.6 to 1.6 percent two weeks ago, ...
given a sharp contraction in China in Q1 and slowing activity in the Uni...
March 12, 2020
We last week revised down growth forecasts for this year, ...
with global growth potentially approaching 1 percent in 2020.
We have written a lot ...
March 5, 2020
We made our “no recession” call last year with a high degree of conviction, ...
because data pointed to an end of the inventory overhang in manufact...