Entries for 'EM Vulnerability'
May 26, 2022
We yesterday published our updated Capital Flows Report, …
laying out our latest global growth and capital flows forecasts.
Risk is buildin...
May 19, 2022
Our forecasts show the global economy teetering on the brink of recession, …
as war in Ukraine, COVID lockdowns in China and a hawkish Fed we...
May 12, 2022
We switched to forecasting a Euro zone recession two months ago, …
given rising odds of adverse spillovers from Russia’s invasion of Uk...
April 28, 2022
We summarize our take-aways from last week’s meetings.
Obviously, on the surface, most discussions were about the war, …
the effectiv...
April 21, 2022
Western sanctions on Russia represent a compromise.
If all of Russia’s financial institutions had been sanctioned, …
that’d mak...
April 7, 2022
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is upending markets.
Rising commodity prices are buoying Latin America, …
while commodity importers like...
March 31, 2022
We examine some of the main drivers of Russia’s current account surplus.
Since Russia invaded Ukraine a month ago, global oil prices have rise...
March 24, 2022
Something very unusual is happening in global capital flows to EM.
China is seeing large outflows in our high-frequency tracking of daily flows, &he...
March 17, 2022
The range of potential outcomes in Ukraine is massive, …
going from a near-term peace deal to a multi-year conflict.
We contrast the range ...
March 10, 2022
We update our heatmap of emerging market vulnerabilities, …
in light of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Western sanctions.
There is ...
March 10, 2022
Sanctions have drastically tightened Russia’s financial conditions.
We forecast a very deep recession of -15 percent GDP growth in 2022, &hell...
March 3, 2022
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a watershed moment for Europe.
It is also a turning point for markets, which are not yet pricing this.
...
February 17, 2022
We last week began a new GMV series on the rise in global inflation.
Central banks are struggling to disentangle if this is a broad-based rise, &hel...
February 10, 2022
The ferocity of the global inflation rebound has come as a surprise.
Central banks are struggling to disentangle if this is a broad-based rise, &hel...
February 3, 2022
Last week we reviewed the global recovery from COVID, …
noting that that the US has outperformed the rest of the world, …
with...
January 27, 2022
The US has made a remarkable recovery from COVID, …
which is mainly a reflection of very aggressive fiscal stimulus.
We survey the CO...
January 20, 2022
We last week published our updated EM exchange rate misalignments.
Many of our readers focused on our undervaluation call for China’s RMB, &he...
December 2, 2021
Early this year we warned about a repeat of the 2013 taper tantrum, …
with longer-term US yields rising sharply and weighing on emerging markets.
...
November 25, 2021
The scale of recent Turkish Lira depreciation rivals the 2018 sudden stop.
Back in 2018, US sanctions were the proximate cause of the Turkish Lira s...
November 4, 2021
Over the summer we wrote extensively about the great “fiscal illusion,” …
whereby low sovereign bond yields were seen as signaling ample fiscal spac...