Entries for 'EM Vulnerability'
October 14, 2021
Ever since the Fed signaled a “fast” taper at its September meeting, …
with tapering likely to start next month and QE concluding by mid-2022, …
l...
September 23, 2021
Markets have resigned themselves to Fed tapering, …
and see the cut-back in QE as a non-event for risk assets.
This is because net coupon issuance...
September 9, 2021
We have examined government bond yields for their information content.
Recent Global Macro Views focused on the thorny issue of “fiscal space,” …
...
September 2, 2021
Our recent pieces have focused on the run-up in government debt due to COVID, …
asking if this rise runs the risk of constraining governments in fut...
August 26, 2021
The COVID-19 pandemic is in many respects a huge fiscal shock, …
depressing tax revenues and raising spending to support households.
As a result, ...
August 12, 2021
The COVID shock caused debt levels around the world to rise sharply, …
even as yields on government bonds have fallen to unprecedented levels.
The...
August 5, 2021
The recent inflation spike is widely dismissed as a supply side phenomenon, …
whereby temporary supply chain disruptions are slowing economic reopen...
July 22, 2021
Repeated credit expansions drove Lira depreciation in recent years.
Credit stimulus boosts growth, but also widens the current account deficit.
It...
July 1, 2021
Earlier this year we coined the term “data tantrum,” ...
to describe the unprecedented reopening of the US economy, ...
which we thought would con...
June 17, 2021
We have devoted recent pieces to the low level of long-term US yields, …
a puzzle that had approached the Greenspan “conundrum” of the mid-2000s, …
...
June 10, 2021
We recently concluded a series of pieces on supply chain disruptions, …
looking at their fall-out on the Fed’s preferred core PCE inflation metric.
...
June 3, 2021
The 10-year Treasury yield has been near 1.6 percent for two months, …
even as progress on vaccinations is rapid and activity is rebounding sharply....
May 27, 2021
The 10-year Treasury yield has been near 1.6 percent for two months, …
even as progress on vaccinations is rapid and activity is rebounding sharply....
May 20, 2021
We have been documenting unprecedented supply chain disruptions, …
which stand out for their severity and for their increasingly global dispersion.
...
May 13, 2021
We have been documenting severe supply chain disruptions in US manufacturing, …
with supplier delivery times almost as stretched as in Japan after F...
May 6, 2021
We are revising our Turkish Lira fair value to $/TRY 9.50.
This decision is driven by balance of payments fundamentals, …
whereby the current acco...
April 22, 2021
We last week began a series on global supply disruptions, …
which showed that rising delivery times in global manufacturing, …
rival what Japan ex...
April 15, 2021
Disruptions to the global manufacturing supply chain are temporary, …
and are likely to fade as the US and other economies continue to reopen.
Yet...
April 8, 2021
As vaccinations progress and the US economy reopens, ...
economic data are starting to come in that look very strong.
This is the flip-side of wea...
March 25, 2021
Turkey has suffered three BoP sudden stops in recent years.
The Lira almost fully recovered after the August 2018 sudden stop, …
because a deep re...