Entries for 'EM Vulnerability'

We discuss why global growth was so synchronized last year, which we trace back to the Shanghai G20 meeting in February 2016. That meeting followed

China's real GDP growth has been very stable since 2015, unlike its main trading partners, which continue to see normal variability. A new activity

Global trade tensions are on the rise, "¦ reflecting persistent current account imbalances. The US current account translates into a 10% Dollar overva

China and Saudi Arabia are key members of the so-called "Dollar block." Both have in recent years experienced large declines in official reserves. In

We provide a summary of the topics we have covered since June 2, when we published the first Global Macro Views that was called "The Big Questions." T

EM currencies have sold off since the FOMC meeting on Sep. 20. We evaluate the risk of another "taper tantrum" and discuss how different currencies mi

This GMV revisits some of the themes from our April Global Economic Monitor examining global growth. The upswing in business sentiment since the sta

We look at where export volumes out- or underperformed relative to fluctuations in the real exchange rate, controlling also for changes in global grow

We showcase the importance of Global Value Chains (GVCs) for world trade. Using granular trade data, we determine that US trade balance with the rest

We update our model for the USD/CNY fix, concluding that USD/CNY could still fix lower for some time, given that the RMB in trade-weighted terms is st

We dig deeper into services exports, and consider what the growing importance of services trade will mean for the global economy. Using a new dataset

The striking slowdown in world trade growth over the past five years has been the subject of much research. In the first of a two-part series on trade

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We examine how rising global interest rates might impact growth in emerging markets, differentiating between countries where growth has been consumpti

We are introducing a new publication, which we are calling Global Macro Views . This product aims to complement existing IIF research, by discussing b

In the months since the election, the ability of Dollar moves to explain USD/CNY fixings is down sharply.' We interpret this regime change as a de fa

We estimate a simple model that examines the role that Dollar direction plays in the fixing mechanism. Prior to Nov. 8, the fixing displayed asymmetry

The sharp decline in the current account surplus,' which fell over $100 billion last year, was driven by a drop in the goods balance, not services.' W