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Recent Publications

Egypt, Middle East North Africa

Egypt: Debt Sustainability Assessment

January 17, 2024

The ongoing conflict in Gaza will widen the current account deficit. Gross financing needs will remain very high and available financing will be insufficient unless an IMF program resumes which would usher in additional official financing.

EM Europe, Poland

CEEMEA Views – Poland: Mending Ties with the EU

January 17, 2024

The new EU-friendly coalition government in Poland marks a significant shift in power. Investors maintain cautious optimism about some legislative changes, which would allow Poland to ramp up its withdrawals from the EU funds, improving the outlook.

Asia Pacific, Banking, China

China Spotlight: Banks face housing woes, local debt, and deflation

January 16, 2024

Chinese banks are facing mounting challenges amid the below-potential growth. The risks posed by the housing and local government sectors are not systemic. However, the deflation and falling lending rates are hurting banks badly.

Podcast, Risk, China, Policy Issues, Russia, Ukraine

Current Account with Clay Lowery - Episode 62: Geopolitical Risk in 2024: The Buckets are Full

January 16, 2024

In this episode of Current Account, Clay reviews the outlook of 2024 through the lens of geopolitical risk. He breaks down the analysis into three sec...

IIF Capital Flows Tracker: January 2024

January 11, 2024

Portfolio flows to EM stood at $29.0 bn in December. Equity and debt flows were $11.1 bn and $18.0 bn. Chinese equities posted $3.4 bn in outflows. ...

Capital Flows, Trade

Weekly Insight: Vital Role of Export Credit on the Road to Net Zero

January 11, 2024

While rising geopolitical tensions create challenges for transition finance, risks are still in line with historical norms. However, continued stagnation in global trade and capital flows suggests de-globalization could stall a net zero future. Strategic trade wars—likely inevitable on the road to Net Zero—will bring the key role of export credit agencies to the fore.

ESG, Debt Sustainability, Climate Finance

Current Account with Clay Lowery - Episode 61: Shaving the Fuzz? A Recap of COP28

January 8, 2024

In the first Current Account episode of 2024, Clay is joined by IIF's Sonja Gibbs, Managing Director, Global Policy Initiatives and Head of Sustainabl...

Asia Pacific, EM Europe, Latin America, Middle East North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa

2024 Investor Trip Schedule

January 3, 2024

Schedule for the IIF's 2024 investor trips released.

Gulf Cooperation Council, Middle East North Africa

GCC: How Are Petrodollars Invested?

December 18, 2023

Gross foreign assets of the GCC countries are forecasted to grow to $4.4 trillion by the end of 2024, in this note we analyze where these petrodollars are being invested.

Oil

Oil Market: Subdued Oil Prices Amid Uncertainty

December 15, 2023

OPEC+ agreed on a 2.2 mb/d voluntary supply cut for 2024Q1, but prices continued to decline, as traders remained doubtful on whether the agreement will be fully implemented or extended beyond 2024Q1. We expect Brent oil prices to average US$80/b in 2024, as oil supply exceeds demand growth.

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The research, analysis and insight in IIF reports should not be construed as investment or financial advice. IIF is not a broker-dealer, investment advisor or commodity trading adviser, and does not engage in providing advice on investing in securities or commodity interests. None of the materials in these reports are intended as or may be relied upon as such.