Entries for 'Middle East North Africa'

Overall growth is set to decelerate, dragged down by stagnant oil production while non-oil real GDP growth will remain robust. The current account and fiscal surpluses will narrow in 2023 due to moderation in oil prices. The authorities have made significant progress in implementing crucial reforms.

The short-term macroeconomic outlook remains favorable, supported by elevated oil prices. Structural reforms are needed to help diversify the economy.

Investor sentiment towards oil exporters in the region will remain favorable due to elevated energy prices. Total capital inflows will remain modest in 2023, as sovereigns’ issue less debt due to continued fiscal surpluses. FDI will become the main conduit for nonresident capital inflows.

Growth in the nine MENA oil exporters will accelerate. The impact of tighter global financial conditions is expected to be limited. The combined current account and fiscal balances will remain in large surpluses. Risks to the outlook are well contained given the ample public foreign assets.

Potential IMF financial support would help meet the large financing needs and strengthen confidence in the economy more broadly.

Prolonged inaction by the authorities has worsened economic conditions and deepened the financial crisis.

The impact of U.S. interest rate increases on the GCC will be limited in an environment of high oil prices.

The country has been in political paralysis without a new government and president since October 2021. We expect growth to accelerate to around 9% in 2022 supported by higher oil prices and production.

Growth will accelerate to 5.9% in 2022 supported by higher oil production and prices. The combined current account surplus is poised to surge to 16% of GDP and the fiscal surplus to 7% of GDP. Inflationary pressures remain relatively modest.

Subdued tourism revenue, higher food prices, and tighter global financial conditions have increased vulnerability of the Egyptian economy. Monetary tightening, exchange rate flexibility, financial support from the GCC, and an increase in natural gas exports will help to mitigate the external shock.

The authorities and the IMF have reached a staff-level agreement on a comprehensive economic program. Approval by the IMF Executive Board is contingent a series of prior actions. The program is based on two pillars–-a unified market-determined exchange rate and a confidence-inspiring banking system.

Political tensions and major structural challenges combined with the war in Ukraine have exacerbated economic vulnerabilities. Current and fiscal deficits and high public debt pose significant financial risks. An IMF program is needed to close the financing gap and restore macroeconomic stability.

The sanctions and the contraction of the Russian economy will have adverse economic spillovers to the CCA. The degree of the effect on each country will depend on its exposure to Russia. Elevated inflation is expected to persist with ongoing supply chain disruptions and higher commodity prices.

The war has increased downside risks to growth, raised inflationary pressure, and would lead to wider current account and fiscal deficits. Worsening external financing conditions have encouraged capital outflows and raised the financing needs.

We brought together IIF members with local and international experts to discuss the ongoing political, economic, and financial crisis in Lebanon and t...

Key senior government officials, representatives from IFIs, and private sector experts will discuss the unprecedented and difficult nature of the Lebanese economic and financial crisis.

Russia’s strategy of interrupting oil and gas flows for political gain will encourage Europe to find alternative energy suppliers. In the near term, alternative supplies to Russian gas are limited. In the medium-term, the U.S., Qatar, and Australia may overtake Russia as the primary gas providers.

Growth will moderate in 2022 and inflationary pressures could start to ease in 2022H2 as global food inflation moderates and central banks in the region maintain their tight policy stance. Higher energy prices will improve the external and fiscal balances in Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan.

Investor sentiment towards the GCC region will improve further due to higher oil prices. Government-Related Entities (GREs) and the financial sector are expected to slightly increase their debt issuance. The pace of ESG issuance is accelerating.