Entries for 'Debt Sustainability'
October 24, 2022
As borrowing slowed, frontier market debt dipped to $3.5 trillion in Q2 2022—still $480 billion above pre-pandemic levels. Helped by economic recovery in an inflationary environment, the FM debt-to-GDP ratio edged down to 103% in Q2 2022.
October 11, 2022
In light of the 2022 Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank Group, this letter sets out private sector perspectives on growing challenges to debt sustainability and efforts to enhance the international sovereign debt architecture.
October 10, 2022
This week, Clay is joined by IIF President and CEO Tim Adams as they discuss a variety of issues surrounding global policy.
September 14, 2022
Following four quarters of consecutive decline, the global debt-to-GDP ratio is edging back up, approaching 350% of GDP in Q2 2022. We expect the global debt ratio to reach 352% of GDP by end-2022.
May 18, 2022
Total global debt rose by $3.3 trillion in Q1 2022 to a new record of over $305 trillion-mostly due to China and the U.S.
March 30, 2022
Total debt in frontier markets surged to a new record high of $3.5 trillion in 2021-some $500 billion above pre-pandemic levels. However, after reaching an all-time high in 2020, FM debt declined to 108% of GDP in 2021-helped by recovery and inflation.
February 23, 2022
Some $10 trillion was added to the global debt mountain last year, bringing the total to a new record high of $303 trillion.
November 17, 2021
After reaching an all-time high in Q2 2021, global debt declined slightly to $296 trillion in Q3–but all in mature markets. Global debt-to-GDP ratios continue to decline, helped by stronger economic activity and higher inflation.
November 4, 2021
Economic recovery remains uneven and patchy for low and lower-middle income countries (LLMICs); Despite easing external debt strains, more than half of LLMICs are at high risk of—or already in—debt distress; Little information to date on how the G20 Common Framework is being implemented; Greater debt transparency could galvanize ESG investments in emerging and developing economies—a key COP26 theme.
September 14, 2021
Some $4.8 trillion was added to the global debt mountain in Q2 2021, bringing it to an all-time high of $296 trillion. Better news: the global debt/GDP ratio declined significantly in Q2 2021, though this follows a large spike in 2020.
August 30, 2021
Efforts to improve debt transparency are underway in both the private and public sectors; the IMF and World Bank, for example, provide technical assis...
June 17, 2021
Good investor relations practices call for better debt transparency that supports regular, meaningful debtor-creditor dialogue; Limited access to timely, accurate and clear data can hinder capital flows to developing countries, while improvements in debt transparency are associated with lower borrowing costs and higher sovereign credit ratings; In cases of default, fair debt restructuring requires active information-sharing between debtor and creditors.
June 10, 2021
High and rising sovereign debt levels have greatly increased the likelihood of further debt strains; Better sovereign debt crisis prevention and resolution is needed to reflect fundamental market changes in recent years; We believe that efforts to strengthen existing mechanisms should center on improving debt transparency, regular and meaningful private-public sector dialogue, and integrating ESG/SDG considerations—all will help borrowers’ market access.
June 3, 2021
Transparency around sovereign debt obligations remains limited, particularly for emerging and developing economies; International financial institutions could help by making more granular debt data available to the public; Greater clarity around the process, terms and conditions of sovereign debt restructuring would also support debt transparency.
April 7, 2020
Global debt across all sectors rose by over $10 trillion in 2019, topping $255 trillion. At over 322% of GDP, global debt is now 40 percentage points ($87 trillion) higher than at the onset of the 2008 financial crisis—a sobering realization as governments worldwide gear up to fight the COVID-19 pandemic.
January 13, 2020
The global debt-to-GDP ratio hit a new all-time high of over 322% in Q3 2019, with total debt reaching close to $253 trillion. Global debt is set to grow faster in 2020 and is estimated to exceed $257 trillion by the end of Q1 2020, driven mainly by non-financial sector debt.
June 27, 2019
Negative-yielding debt hits a fresh record high of over $13 trillion; 75% of that is safe-haven government bonds; Low borrowing costs could provide some breathing room for EMs with high government financing needs; Climate change risks aren’t just domestic: over $29 trillion of G20 (mostly G7) cross-border investments are at risk. With awareness of these risks on the rise, our Green Flows Tracker shows net inflows of $2bn in Q2 (and record inflows for June); Insurer perspectives on LIBOR transition: the regulatory framework for EU insurers still requires a LIBOR-based term structure as the discount rate for insurance obligations.
June 20, 2019
Disconnect between Fed dots and market rate expectations set to persist; Negative-yielding debt hits a record high of over $12 trillion—putting the risk of asset price bubbles in focus; Further USD strength could pose significant challenges for non-bank borrowers in emerging markets and mature markets outside the U.S.; More monetary stimulus would widen the gap between the cost of equity and debt, triggering another sharp accumulation in corporate debt; Robust growth in Panda bond issuance
June 10, 2019
A new set of private sector principles to enhance transparency in sovereign debt markets.
May 30, 2019
Trade tensions and fears of a global growth slowdown send term premia and bond yields sharply lower; Tariff spat weighs on trade volumes — but inflation expectations in check as importers bear the brunt of the cost; U.S. buybacks and dividends still going strong — but ebbing earnings repatriation flows could signal a decline; Emerging market debt vulnerabilities reflected in higher risk premia; To meet ambitious goals for sustainable infrastructure and the Paris commitments on climate change, low-and medium-income countries would need to spend as much as 4.5% of GDP.