Entries for 'Asia Pacific'

The IIF released a collection of papers analyzing the state of the Chinese economy. This research coincides with the IIF’s 2019 China Roundtable, held on the margins of the IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings. 

Trade tensions raised fears of slowing global trade. We develop a model to track US trade in real time, based on detailed weekly customs information. The picture is more positive than in Asian data, as US trade stabilized in real terms in early 2019. We think that global trade fears are overblown.

Growth momentum continues, albeit at a slower pace in 2019 and 2020. Capital inflows will cushion pressure from weaker current accounts. Fiscal deficits and trade tensions are the main risks to the outlook.

In our last edition of Sticky Notes in 2018, we look at President Xi's reform anniversary speech, Venezuela's future, NAFTA termination, oil markets, and a potential U.S. government shutdown.

In this edition of Sticky Notes, we look at oil markets ahead of the OPEC+ meeting, consumer privacy laws, U.S.-China trade talks, and end-of-year book recommendations.

In this edition of Sticky Notes, we look at key issues facing the incoming U.S. Congress, new realities in Mexico, U.S.-China trade talks, and potential auto tariffs.

In this edition of Sticky Notes, we look at takeaways from the U.S. mid-term elections, the latest U.S.-China trade talks, Brazil in the wake of a newly elected government, and U.S. soybean exports.

Investors undeterred by the prospect of gridlock after the U.S. midterm elections China sees much weaker FDI in Q3, though exports have held up well F

China is seeing the rise of a new kind of conglomerate, companies that occupy unprecedented roles in the world's second largest economy. With business

EM Asian currencies have historically exhibited "fear of floating," with many countries using official intervention to stabilize exchange rates. W

Non-resident portfolio flows turned negative in October with $7.6 billion in outflows (all from equities-debt saw inflows). China saw non-resident por

We recently argued systemic risk in EM Asia is contained, "¦ but concentration risk exists in countries like Indonesia. Positioning is heavy in rupiah

If you would like to receive the Sticky Notes email, please send us an email' here ' with your information. This week: Kristen Silverberg looks at t

If you would like to receive the Sticky Notes email, please send us an email' here ' with your information. This week: Kristen Silverberg looks at t

The EM sell-off was quite intense in recent months, with major currencies in Asia depreciating significantly. We assess if this is a signal of systemic risk in the region, comparing external risk metrics in the 1997 crisis vs. now. Vulnerability is an order of magnitude lower today. Financing needs are much lower and reserves higher.

Portfolio inflows to EMs increased slightly to $7.9 billion in September, due mostly to a rebound in bond inflows to $5.6 billion-offsetting the slowd

Scott Farnham updates on this week's U.S.-China trade news, and looks at President Trump's love/hate relationship wit