Entries for 'Asia Pacific'
October 15, 2019
US tariffs on China have the potential to switch production to other countries in the region.
We use input-output tables to see which countries in ...
September 3, 2019
China’s $2 trillion external liability seems large, but is manageable given China’s GDP, exports, and foreign assets. FDI loans, trade credits, and bank deposits are relatively sticky. China’s external debt overhang should be a minor concern for BoP and RMB depreciation.
August 26, 2019
Strong investment growth is a prerequisite for Indonesia to grow faster than 6% per annum. The global commodity cycle, competitive external investment environment, and limited policy stimulus are potential headwinds to a meaningful pick-up in investment.
August 2, 2019
Household debt has fueled China's housing, consumption, and economic growth. Households' large financial and housing assets mitigate the risks of rising leverage. However, household leverage is no longer low relative to income, and can no longer be used to stimulate economic growth.
July 30, 2019
Vietnam has further integrated into regional supply chains. It has benefited from US trade diversion away from China, and production reallocation and investment by Chinese firms. The key risk is the US changing its policy stance towards Vietnam.
June 24, 2019
High import content in export production and investment is evident across the region. Recent import compression should support current account positions amid weak exports. However, the multiplier effects of import plunge on investment will likely depress GDP growth.
June 5, 2019
China currently faces headwinds to growth from both US tariffs and weaker domestic consumption. Compared with 2016, another period of soft exports and weak demand, many cyclical indicators—such as investment and retail—are weaker now, but structural indicators are more promising.
May 14, 2019
External imbalances are headwinds facing the fast-growing economies of Indonesia and the Philippines. We have a constructive view of the CADs in these economies as investment has been an important contributor. Reliance on portfolio and other foreign inflows is the key risk.
April 10, 2019
The IIF released a collection of papers analyzing the state of the Chinese economy. This research coincides with the IIF’s 2019 China Roundtable, held on the margins of the IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings.
March 12, 2019
Trade tensions raised fears of slowing global trade. We develop a model to track US trade in real time, based on detailed weekly customs information. The picture is more positive than in Asian data, as US trade stabilized in real terms in early 2019. We think that global trade fears are overblown.
March 1, 2019
Growth momentum continues, albeit at a slower pace in 2019 and 2020. Capital inflows will cushion pressure from weaker current accounts. Fiscal deficits and trade tensions are the main risks to the outlook.
December 19, 2018
In our last edition of Sticky Notes in 2018, we look at President Xi's reform anniversary speech, Venezuela's future, NAFTA termination, oil markets, and a potential U.S. government shutdown.
December 5, 2018
In this edition of Sticky Notes, we look at oil markets ahead of the OPEC+ meeting, consumer privacy laws, U.S.-China trade talks, and end-of-year book recommendations.
November 28, 2018
In this edition of Sticky Notes, we look at key issues facing the incoming U.S. Congress, new realities in Mexico, U.S.-China trade talks, and potential auto tariffs.
November 16, 2018
In this edition of Sticky Notes, we look at takeaways from the U.S. mid-term elections, the latest U.S.-China trade talks, Brazil in the wake of a newly elected government, and U.S. soybean exports.
November 8, 2018
Investors undeterred by the prospect of gridlock after the U.S. midterm elections China sees much weaker FDI in Q3, though exports have held up well F
November 1, 2018
China is seeing the rise of a new kind of conglomerate, companies that occupy unprecedented roles in the world's second largest economy. With business
November 1, 2018
EM Asian currencies have historically exhibited "fear of floating," with many countries using official intervention to stabilize exchange rates. W
October 31, 2018
Non-resident portfolio flows turned negative in October with $7.6 billion in outflows (all from equities-debt saw inflows). China saw non-resident por
October 31, 2018
External imbalances overshadow the outlook of India, Indonesia, and the Philippines. Indonesia's current account deficit proves to be the most structu