Entries for 'United Arab Emirates'

Investor sentiment towards oil exporters in the region will remain favorable due to elevated energy prices. Total capital inflows will remain modest in 2023, as sovereigns’ issue less debt due to continued fiscal surpluses. FDI will become the main conduit for nonresident capital inflows.

Sanctions on Russia combined with supply shortages elsewhere may keep oil prices elevated despite lower global demand. Higher global oil supply combined with weaker demand growth could stabilize the oil market in H2 2022 and in 2023

The result of higher oil prices is a shift in purchasing power from oil consumers to producers. Oil exporters are getting a boost to their terms of trade, leading to wider CA and fiscal surpluses. Higher energy prices will hurt several EMDEs that remain heavily dependent on petroleum imports.

The MENA region has weathered the economic storm from the health crisis. The economic recovery continues to gain momentum. Higher energy prices will improve the fiscal and current account positions in oil exporters. In oil importers, deficits, government debt, and unemployment will remain high. 

GCC authorities took forceful steps to mitigate the fallout from COVID-19, and we expect a modest recovery in 2021 supported by higher oil prices. However, the region confronts an ongoing exodus of expats and decelerating growth of capital stock, underscoring the need for broad structural reforms.

The UAE has seen limited health impacts from the pandemic. The vaccine rollout, partial oil price recovery, and progress in digital transformation offer hope for the UAE economy. Technological progress will develop new growth drivers and raise potential growth over the medium-term. 

Sovereigns are increasingly tapping capital markets to finance fiscal deficits. Private inflows to the MENA region continue to be dominated by Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar. Resident outflows are declining but still exceed inflows. FDI remains subdued and concentrated in the energy sector. 

Russia’s fiscal breakeven oil price, around $40/bbl in 2020, is the lowest among major oil exporters. While Saudi Arabia’s fiscal and external breakeven prices should decline due to a cut in non-priority spending and a fall in imports, fiscal breakeven prices remain well above $60 in much of MENA. 

Our MENA growth forecast stands at -0.3% with additional downside risks and high uncertainty over the duration of the shutdown and an additional potential fall on oil prices. We project recession in most oil exporters, the lowest growth in oil importers since the early 1990s, and wide twin deficits. 

We have lowered our average Brent oil price assumption by $10/bbl to $54/bbl for 2020 due to lower global demand for oil. Such a decline exposes significant vulnerabilities among MENA oil-exporting countries, especially Oman and Bahrain. External and fiscal positions are expected to weaken.

The extra 0.5 mbd cut may not be enough to rein in projected oversupply in 2020, since the OPEC+ bloc has already made cuts well beyond the 1.2 mbd target of the previous agreement. Consequently, we expect a decline in average Brent oil prices to $60 a barrel in 2020.

Non-resident capital inflows to the MENA region are projected to rise from $165bn last year to $200bn in 2019 before moderating to $173bn in 2020. With the increasing inflows, inclusion into global indices, and ongoing reforms, the MENA region is becoming more prominent on the EM investment map. 
 

We expect growth in the MENA region to slow to 1.4% in 2019 from 1.8% in 2018, dragged down by the deep recession in Iran and the compliance with the OPEC + deal. This aggregate picture, however, hides considerable heterogeneity in economic paths across the region.

Promoting nonhydrocarbon growth and diversifying away from traditional sectors remain key challenges. We expect nonhydrocarbon growth to reach 1.9% in 2019 and 2.2% in 2020, aided by stimulus in Abu Dhabi and Expo 2020-linked spending in Dubai, but then recede. More emphasis on innovation is vital. 

We still expect Brent oil prices to average $65/b in 2019 and $62/b in 2020. Growth in non-OPEC supply combined with deceleration in global oil demand growth in 2019 and 2020, is offsetting upward pressure on oil prices from rising geopolitical tensions that could disrupt supply.

The GCC countries followed the Fed and cut their key policy rates, given their pegged exchange rates. Lower interest rates will encourage borrowing and stimulate non-oil growth, which has been weak in recent years. We expect non-oil growth to pick up from 2.1% in 2018 to 2.8% in 2019. 
 

The external balance remains in an enviable position. We expect the current account surplus to widen to 8.6% of GDP in 2018, and FDI wi

Following the recent rise in oil prices to over $60 per barrel, there is a sense that the worst is behind the UAE's economy and confidence is graduall

The UAE has been relatively resilient to the impact of the slump in oil prices owing to a relatively diversified economy, excellent infrastructure, po

GCC Central Banks Match the Recent Rate Hike in the US Despite a slowdown in economic activity due to serious fiscal consolidation and the oil crash,