Entries for 'Phillips Curve'
September 1, 2022
• Shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine in late February, …
• we switched to forecasting recession in the Euro zone, …
• in addition to projecting a fa...
June 30, 2022
We have been warning of global recession for some time.
Our focus was on the Euro zone due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, …
and on ...
June 23, 2022
The ECB looks set to unveil its new anti-fragmentation tool at its July meeting.
That tool will most likely be a form of QE for specific Euro periph...
June 2, 2022
ECB QE helped anchor Euro periphery yields during COVID, …
a welcome step given turmoil in global bond markets at the time.
But the stabili...
April 14, 2022
Before COVID, there was broad agreement that R* is very low, …
so that low fed funds did not in fact mean monetary policy was loose, …...
December 16, 2021
Fed QE essentially absorbed all COVID debt issuance, …
in effect neutralizing potential upward pressure on US yields.
We update well-known academi...
December 9, 2021
Japan has been in a stable equilibrium for a long time, …
with high levels of government debt and very low bond yields.
A decade of BoJ QQE with y...
November 11, 2021
Policy stimulus has returned the economy to its pre-COVID trend, …
something that was never accomplished in the wake of the Great Recession.
The F...
October 7, 2021
Last week we discussed US Treasuries’ safe haven status, …
focusing on whether markets are starting to question that status, …
given Treasuries sa...
September 30, 2021
For a few scary days in early March 2020 when COVID first hit, …
US Treasury securities stopped behaving like a safe haven asset, …
with the 10-ye...
July 15, 2021
The Euro zone often gets cast as a debt crisis, …
but it is really about differentials in competitiveness, …
with Euro periphery real exchange rat...
April 29, 2021
COVID-19 caused substantial disruption to labor markets.
We survey prime-age employment ratios across key economies.
Negative labor market fallout...
October 1, 2020
The COVID-19 shock means output gaps are substantial everywhere.
As a result, all major economies are struggling to reflate simultaneously.
Last w...
September 24, 2020
Recent ECB comments on the Euro sparked consternation, ...
and have been likened to verbal intervention at a difficult time.
The reality is that “...
September 17, 2020
The Bank of Japan adopted Yield Curve Control (YCC) in September 2016.
At the time, YCC was something of a “Hail Mary” to get reflation back on trac...
September 3, 2020
The Fed’s recent shift to average inflation targeting, ...
and the related de-emphasis of NAIRU and output gaps, ...
are a material step forward f...
July 30, 2020
The years leading up to COVID-19 saw persistently low inflation, ...
something that came to be called by some the “missing inflation puzzle.”
Risi...
June 25, 2020
Unlike previous recessions, the COVID-19 shock hit services employment especially hard.
Many jobs that have been lost are in services like retail, e...
June 11, 2020
Last week brought a surprise drop in the unemployment rate, …
but sadly the outlook is for a slow and painful labor market recovery.
Unlike previo...
February 13, 2020
Labor markets have registered substantial recoveries in recent years, ...
but the headline numbers are flattered by rising female participation rate...