The October labor market data on balance were a hawkish signal for the Fed, because the most dovish component - the drop in average hourly earnings gr
With the announcement of the next Fed Chair expected imminently, there is a lot of speculation over how policy might differ across the various candida
Sizing up the earnings turnaround' Pricing policy uncertainty' Bank earnings offer clues on cyclical recovery Frontier markets see a continued surge i
In a recent Global Macro Views , we have shown that this year's drop in US inflation - arguably one of the key macro surprises of 2017 - is to an impo
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We expect an uptick in inflation in coming months, due to a normalization of the price path for specific PCE elements. The drivers behind this process
We have shown that large movements in a handful of categories have thrown off inflation readings in the US and the Euro zone. We look for similar dist
We update our assessment of the labor market following the latest round of data for August. ' We project the U-3 unemployment rate in a range of 4.0 -
The striking slowdown in world trade growth over the past five years has been the subject of much research. In the first of a two-part series on trade
We provide some background for the discussion on taxing foreign held income. We document the size and nature of reinvested earnings that US-based firm
Since our initial piece, the participation rate has drifted up, a trend that - should it continue - would tend to slow further declines in the unemplo
We start to examine why average hourly earnings growth is so low. We show that the degree of dispersion in wage growth across sectors has risen, even
Markets seemed to move last week based on President Trump's July 12th statement that his Administration would impose tariffs or quotas on steel. ' As
We examine the decline in core PCE inflation, looking at individual components within the inflation basket. We find that the decline can be accounted
We examine the labor market "churn" and perform a sensitivity analysis on the US unemployment rate. Factoring in some slowing in hiring and a gradual
Why is Retail Employment Falling so Sharply? We examine whether changing shopping habits can explain large job losses. Our results show that the subs