Entries for 'Philippines'
April 20, 2022
Russia’s war on Ukraine has caused a strong surge in commodity prices, as well as uncertainty regarding global growth and the outlook for inflation. We have revised down our growth forecast for the ASEAN-5 and South Korea. Rising inflation will prompt central banks to begin policy normalization in ’22. Current account dynamics will be driven by relative exposure to commodities. Risks stem from an uncertain outlook for China and higher energy prices.
November 1, 2021
The result of higher oil prices is a shift in purchasing power from oil consumers to producers. Oil exporters are getting a boost to their terms of trade, leading to wider CA and fiscal surpluses. Higher energy prices will hurt several EMDEs that remain heavily dependent on petroleum imports.
October 20, 2021
We have revised our 2021 growth outlook for ASEAN+ from 4.5% to 3.6%. This is mostly due to lockdowns weighing on manufacturing and services. However, ASEAN+ countries have more policy space to respond to shocks. Non-resident capital flows are projected to rebound this year to $228 bn. FDI and portfolio debt are key drivers but 21H2 will likely see a slowdown. Nonetheless, we expect flows above pre-pandemic levels in 2021 and 2022.
September 8, 2021
ASEAN-5 countries experienced strong, export-driven growth in 2021H1. However, the COVID Delta variant is already affecting business sentiment. With vaccination rates still low, we expect growth to slow markedly in H2. Lockdowns in the ASEAN-5 are also beginning to affect global value chains. We expect monetary and fiscal policies to remain supportive into next year.
May 5, 2021
ASEAN countries will bounce back from the COVID-19 shock this year. However, the pace of the recovery varies due to uneven pandemic control. Supply chain disruptions subside, and ASEAN exports are rising sharply. Fiscal and monetary policy stances will likely remain supportive this year.
October 21, 2020
We expect a stronger recovery in capital flows to Asia relative to other EMs in 2021. FDI remains an important driver, with India and Indonesia as the largest recipients. Relatively robust inflows and c/a adjustments in ‘20 allow for reserve accumulation. A reemergence of COVID-19 and geopolitical factors are the key risks to the outlook.
September 23, 2020
Many EM central banks started QE-like programs at the height of the COVID-19 crisis. This coincided with questions arising with respect to the financing of widening deficits. However, actual government bond purchases remain limited so far, including in Asia. Domestic investors appear to have stepped in to buy up additional sovereign issuance.
July 29, 2020
We analyze external adjustments in EM Asia following the COVID-19 shock. Cross-border flows are shifting considerably in many countries in the region. The global recession weighs on exports and weak domestic demand on imports. Other sources of FX inflows have come under significant pressure as well in H1. This includes both international tourism revenues and workers’ remittances.
June 17, 2020
We downgrade our forecast and now expect an output contraction of 3.2%. The collapse in tourism has had the most immediate impact on the region. Shutdowns weakened domestic demand and exports declined markedly. Monetary and fiscal countermeasures will only partially offset this effect.
June 24, 2019
High import content in export production and investment is evident across the region. Recent import compression should support current account positions amid weak exports. However, the multiplier effects of import plunge on investment will likely depress GDP growth.
May 14, 2019
External imbalances are headwinds facing the fast-growing economies of Indonesia and the Philippines. We have a constructive view of the CADs in these economies as investment has been an important contributor. Reliance on portfolio and other foreign inflows is the key risk.
May 1, 2018
The economy is to expand around 6.7% in 2018, running near potential. The key this year is to stabilize inflation expectations and anchor inflation wi
June 30, 2017
Remittances are key as they bolster domestic consumption and help shore up the current account. Concerns on remittance outlook have risen due to the o
June 22, 2017
Growth is slightly slower post-elections but robust, while exports have rebounded. Tax reform should allow greater development spending while limiting
November 10, 2016
President Duterte, who came into office on June 30, is stepping up macro stimulus and growth-enhancing reforms, while seeking to fulfill campaign prom
May 10, 2016
Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte appears to have won the presidential election by a wider margin than initially expected. With 93% of precincts report
July 22, 2015
Economic growth was held back in the first quarter by a slower expansion of government spending and a slowdown in exports, while private consumption a
August 21, 2014
Policy-making and economic performance have progressively strengthened since President Aquino came to office in mid-2010. An expansionary fiscal progr
August 14, 2013
The restoration of macroeconomic balance has helped insulate domestic conditions from recurring global financial turmoil and volatile capital flows. T
February 22, 2013
Last year's boost in public expenditures helped spur domestic demand and revive the economy. The ability to use the budget as a discretionary policy t