Markets are fixated on 7.00 as an important threshold for $/CNY, thinking a move through that level could signal competitive devaluation. But the f
Portfolio inflows to EMs increased slightly to $7.9 billion in September, due mostly to a rebound in bond inflows to $5.6 billion-offsetting the slowd
In the wake of the latest escalation in China-US trade tensions, RMB has not resumed its sharp devaluation from a few months ago. This is because t
The EM sell-off is abating as the worst FX overvaluations have shrunk, but risks related to China remain in the context of the ongoing trade war. W
How long can investor bias toward the U.S. persist? Equity valuations have come down-but few markets look cheap EM risk aversion continues to rise, bu
Equities were more resilient with over $7 billion in inflows-of which China was $5.8 billion; in contrast, debt saw
Changes in China's FX regime have been associated with capital outflows, notably the 2014 band widening and the "step" devaluation in August 2015.
With this edition of the IIF Capital Flows Tracker, we introduce a new version of the EM Portfolio Flows Tracker. Our " Tracker 4.0 " provides a more
Sharp drop in global trade volumes, driven mainly by emerging markets' Warning bell on global stocks as defensives outperform cyclicals' FX-denominate
The recent RMB devaluation is raising fears a currency war is imminent. RMB declines have undone strength from early 2018, a natural up and down. But
Analysts weigh current growth signals against the potential impact of tariffs' Dollar strength prompts a rethink across asset prices What next for com
Welcome back to another edition of Sticky Notes, the IIF's review of this week's events in international economics and politics. If you would like to
The RMB had been on the sidelines of growing trade tensions, but its recent weakness is raising fears of competitive devaluation. We continue to th
Mounting trade tensions raise risks for global equities, emerging markets Sudden stop in non-resident portfolio equity flows to China Big drop in U.S.
Market positioning highlights optimism on U.S., Japanese equities, risks for Treasuries, EMs U.S. yield curve flattening leaves bank stocks unruffled"
China posted its first current account deficit in a long time in Q1. Is the deficit due to rebalancing or other factors? The bulk of the decline refle
Turkey hikes rates to support the lira-will this movie replay in other markets? Rise in EM local currency yields has been modest, compared to the tape
China still enjoys strong growth momentum driven by services and advanced manufacturing. Trade tensions and deleveraging of a very indebted economy ar
Despite U.S. fiscal expansion, the global supply of safe assets may be nearing a cyclical peak' Large U.S. banks report record net income in Q1, helpe
We recently introduced a new activity tracker for China. That tracker displays far more swings than the official GDP data. We explore if swings in cre