Economic Views

China experienced unprecedented portfolio outflows in 2022H1, … that started right when war in Ukraine broke out and persisted. Our trackers point t...

Peru’s current account deficit printed above 5% of GDP in Q1, … but we think the underlying external position is still quite healthy. Net of FDI r...

We update our database of foreign flows to local-currency govies, … where heterogeneity across EM is substantial since covid began. Major EMs like...

EM ex China outflows since the war began are not unprecedented. In contrast, outflows from China in Q1 were the largest on record, … and were bro...

The legislature has shrunk Lula’s spending package somewhat, … but the overall fiscal picture going into 2023 is still too weak, … given overall pol...

We assess 2023 budgets put forward by a group of ten EMs. Fiscal deficits will be larger than in 2019 almost universally, … including countries that...

We assess the fiscal position the Lula administration inherits, … and discuss the implications of possible spending packages. Fiscal accounts will b...

Brazil is easing fiscal policy by possibly more than 1% of GDP, … as elections approach amid high inflation and social discontent. In 2022, revenu...

We present our EM current account forecasts for next year. Wide deficits will continue in Turkey, Hungary, and Philippines. In a group of countries ...

We update our high-frequency tracking of EM trade balances, … and discuss broader BoP developments for selected countries. Some like Brazil continue...

India’s trade deficit in H1 was the widest since the taper tantrum. Imports of deeply discounted Russian oil have risen sharply, … but won’t...

We track EM trade balances as a proxy for current accounts. Imports increased well past pre-covid levels everywhere, … but strong exports prevente...

Sri Lanka secured a $2.9bn IMF program pending debt restructuring talks. We assess capacity to pay interest on restructured debt in coming years. ...

Several EMs are seeing outflows from local-currency government bonds. China is one of them, in the context of record portfolio outflows in Q1. Our t...

Kenya is one of the frontier markets cut from the bond market. The IMF program promises a lot of frontloaded fiscal adjustment, … by the standards o...

El Salvador’s funding gap through the January bond payment, …  could be 4% of GDP in the mild scenario we presented last week. Already falling rollo...

Overall growth is set to decelerate, dragged down by stagnant oil production while non-oil real GDP growth will remain robust. The current account and fiscal surpluses will narrow in 2023 due to moderation in oil prices. The authorities have made significant progress in implementing crucial reforms.

Colombian assets have sold off on high political and policy risk, … in the context of very wide twin fiscal and current account deficits. We see lim...

Mexico’s trade deficit was the widest of the century in 22H1, … mostly due to expensive oil and other commodity imports. However, remittances and to...

Weak consumption due to zero covid is weighing on growth, … as are a housing slowdown and increasing global recession risk.   We see growth of 2.6% ...